Category: 2020

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Future Pandemic(s) Post Corona Future 2020-2030: What comes after this pandemic, how does our life, the economy, work change …? how is it going on with our life, our business, economy, health, society, …?  Here are my 4 scenarios as a futurist: 

Order my new book “Futures Pandemics” here: go to the Shop

Megatrend „Pandemication – Pandemization“

 Post Corona scenarios & futures . the new beginning (part 1)

Read about the 4 new scenarios after the pandemic(s) crisis: STARTUP-BOOM (40%), GOLDEN-ZOOM (30%), ECO-DOOM (20%), SOCIAL-GLOOM (10%)

What happens after the corona pandemic, will there be a Covid-20, -21? How is our economy, society and our coexistence going? Many questions that should be answered here. On April 1st, 2020 I published my latest book “Future(s) Pandemic(s)”, which, in the middle of the crisis, provides answers on how you can survive with, after and without virus infections, save your business, secure your job and have time for family and friends. Will there be many company crashes, mass insolvencies, high suicide rates and that our children will lose body contact with others because the privacy has been extended to 1.50 to 2m? And will cashless payments now, masks worn in public as they have been in Asia for years – and virtual instead of real physical sex also become everyday life for western people? Yes and no, because like a big ship it takes 1-2 generations before you get used to and master these global epidemics and pandemics – without forgetting them as so often; and a new contact-free body exchange becomes everyday, e.g. over suits that astronauts and professional gamers already use today. Such sensor rubber and exoskeleton suits are already everyday life in Japan for lonely singles to the elderly to maintain physical and mental freedom – but this does not make it a killer application for long-distance contact for all of us, we are too different and grown up in another was for that.

And what does the future of the pandemic(s) look like, will we defeat it like the plague “permanently” or only temporarily, have antidotes or will we be exterminated in the end? As the viruses continue to develop and become more radical, there is reason to fear that the time after a pandemic is just the waiting time until the next. But because many countries are becoming increasingly preventive and prepared, the danger time is reduced to days. What is certain is that with the growth of our world population and further urbanization, such biological medical disasters will return. Urbanization is slow and small in Europe, but in Asia, especially China and India and Africa, more and more so-called megacities are emerging, i.e. larger than 10 million, and metacities with 20 million are more densely and more densely populated, with more space and resource consumption. There are already over 100 town locations like these.

And what will these mother nature’s biological weapons do to us humans in the future? On the one hand they immunize us according to the secret cosmic evolution plan, on the other side they warn us of our mortality and fragility. As we continue to grow so rapidly, we will soon enter the space age and live on other planets – we need immunity for that. Otherwise we are like in the history of many indigenous people (South America, …) who were surprised by the ‘discoverers’ and their diseases and who died from ‘harmless’ infections in an unusual and unprepared manner. The immunization of the earth’s population is a cosmological master plan, but not the extent and how long it takes us to heal – these are homemade problems of world research.

So let’s look back at the time today from the future, i.e. winter 2020, 2025 and 2030, and design an overall scenario consisting of 4 building blocks or individual images. There are and were rapid changes and slow-decelerated transformations, hard interventions and ‘softly’ creeping innovations, i.e. some immediately and others passively continuously over time, say in a short, medium and long term.

The first scenario is a fast and drastic one, namely the ECO-DOOM (20% probability), i.e. economic crash, system down, consumption blockage, culture shock, connected with corporate insolvencies, company sales, business triggers. Small and medium-sized companies become indebted due to the loss of sales, corporations stop innovations and new products, because in many cases the money flows into salaries and the social sector. However, this also creates equal opportunities, because whoever starts again best and quickly transforms and reorganizes the situation can gain market share. These are above all the online providers, digital business shops, virtual stores that will be among the new hidden champions and future winners. The overall market is shaken, restructured and partly re-divided in all sectors, and there are both weak and strong market shifts, e.g. on digital trade / e-commerce.
For employees and staff, it means that they have to adapt to many innovations and fear for their jobs because of the now faster-paced digitalization and increased use of artificial intelligence.

Because even if the second scenario of the SOCIAL GLOOM (10% probability) is delayed  between gloomy to twilight zone – this will be after the pandemics harder and more sustainable. Because on the one side, many private households have empty the store shelves and so quickly do not need anything anymore or have spent too much house money for security and have to save. The vacation fund is not filled up as quickly as it was partly emptied; you either cannot travel yet, are afraid of airline bankruptcies or a new pandemic on holidays, so that it would be difficult or impossible for you to return home. A lot has been read in the media about corporate bankruptcies in the Corona period, which is why investments in private and business are very reserved. This hits the industry hard as a boomerang.

This contrasts with the third scenario, which occurs in small, quiet steps but ultimately with a big leap forward. In GOLDEN ZOOM (30% probability), digitization is making further progress. It is transferred from school institutions and children day care centers to homework, teaching and creative, as well as online games. Citizens buy more and further on the Internet and have it sent to them, which supports this with falling shipping costs. And also the employees in their home offices learn to design their work virtually, to organize and to do everything together with their teams in video meetings as before in the office – this completely and holistically changes the working world towards a new work culture in the long term. Since 2010, digitization has not really made any headway in Europe, compared to USAmerica and Asia, and has barely got off the starting blocks if you look at Alibaba, Amazon, Google & co. opposite compared, who are each market leaders in global online trading. This crisis is digging deep into the world of work and society, but it also makes teleworking socially acceptable and even more natural in professional life. This positive effect is only ‘overshadowed’ by the fact that the development of artificial intelligence is accelerated in the course of the coming cost pressure on companies, so that it can increasingly replace employees and staff.

And last but not least, but not at the end, but just starting the fourth scenario with the new STARTUP BOOM (40% probability). The current as well as new founders are in the starting blocks, are flexible in small sharing offices or operate from home, and are therefore flexible, yet innovatively capable without large R&D centers as well as competently equipped. They are the new hidden champion superstars, either in partnership with larger companies at eye level or as the upcoming new Facebooks & Alibabas. This further flexibilizes and mobilizes our working world, captures and mitigates the job cuts and creates an even larger network of freelancers, who together create new and next-generation medium-sized companies (SME) in their added value.

The future or futures are a VUCA interplay – the future is and will be even more volatile (V), uncertain (U), complex (C) and ambiguous (A); it’s a mindset change mindset and stands for a new beginning of our thinking, away from previous simple patterns. Like a phoenix from the ashes, new ventures from the corona darkness and pandemic sinking will appear on the surface and usher in a new era as the CoronaPlus (C+) generation.

 STARTUP-BOOMing (40%) compensates or balances the ECO-DOOMing (20%) in the gross social balance sheet, while GOLDEN-ZOOMing (30%) bridges sustainable SOCIAL-GLOOMing (10%) in the long term.

 

Read in 4 new scenarios how we work after the corona pandemic, love and live: SOCIAL-DIY (40%), TRANS-POLICY (30%), HAMMER-DANCE (20%), SMART-DISTANCE (10%)

 

Post corona scenarios & futures . the drama (part 2)

If we look at the behavior and strategies in the business and private sectors, we see two dimensions, on the one hand an open field with cosmopolitanism, in it the reopening of the world (no closed borders, no travel stops, …) and the ongoing megatrend globalization. This contrasts with a closed system with border closings and isolation of individual countries to continents such as hard-pressed protection policies (sharp border controls, high tariffs on imports, trade war, sanctionism, fortress Europe …), which is hardly possible for a country to be self-sufficient, i.e. such restrictions and restrictions usually harm of their own economy most (see Iran, Iraq, Cuba, … as historical examples) as that they really protect against external dangers.
The second axis of good and evil runs between state full / partial control (big brother surveillance, …) or the call for the strong hand of the state (Russia, China, Turkey, …), the opposite side prefers a development in the direction direct (people’s) democracy to panocracy, in

If this SOCIAL-DIY (40% probability) functions as an open system between a globally open and self-made scenario, it requires the political responsibility of many citizens (example: Switzerland, …). In such a tendence trend and quiet revolution, many authorities are first decentralized, then dismantled, and ultimately a national / basic income is created, where nobody has to work for money anymore, but is provided with the basic necessities necessary for life. There would be a large number of mobile offices here, many becoming founders and creative people. I.e. we all work everywhere. This will be commonplace in the future with self-driving automobiles, when we no longer have to concentrate on driving, and move without a traffic jam and stops in autonomous vehicles in hypertunnels, drones or meglev / magnetic levitation trains to air shuttles. And this would also promote artificial intelligence, because if this replaces all workplaces, we will be able to do everything we want, virtually anywhere, but we won’t have to sit in an office or act in a production halls.

SMART-DISTANCE (10% probability) goes in a similar direction, but here you can observe a more private retreat on the one side (home office) and a more distant behavior towards your fellow human beings, the distance and privacy are reduced to 4 to 6 feet extended. The physical culture suffers especially children in the exchange of contacts when playing with others, no shaking hands, no kissing of friendship, no love kisses, hugging, and sex is limited and excluded – no permissions for prostitution or only practiced virtually (love dolls so-called sexy maids, petting software, online love toys & joy, long-distance apps, …). This may get used to indirectly and slowly over time with future(s) generations, but it takes some hyper generations. But there is a little more worry, fear and distrust in contact with other people in our everyday lives, and here and there protective masks like condoms become our everyday companions in pockets everywhere and at all times.

Since our penchant for freedom and self-determined democracy can no longer be reversed, the following two scenarios decrease over time, because we are determined by others.

The HAMMER-DANCE (20% probability) between moral ethics and law as a middle way between joy and burden are characterized by isolating boundaries (curfew, ban on meetings, avoidance of contact, …) and state intervention, quasi adaptively adapted to the respective situation and checked by experts. I.e. one loosens the restrictions in the event of a decline and barricades ‘immediately’ in the event of danger regardless of losses and high social collateral damage, closes and opens in alternation. Since this interferes deeply and widely with people’s privacy, it is a tolerated but not accepted nor acceptable, an unwillingly accepted and undesirable political instrument of resilience.

 

Rather, in the fourth and last scenario TRANS-POLICY (30% probability), foreign and domestic policy is carried out in a globally controlled manner and expanded to include health systems. In addition to border controls, there are health checks at airports and borders with a division into risky and safe countries, as is already the case according to the assessment of the political stability of a country, an A to AAAAA rating system for ‘health creditworthiness’. I.e. as with a filter system, all inflows and outflows of goods and people are not only checked occasionally, but continuously. This is a semi-open, semi-closed system – depending on the perspective. And this will surely act and divide more into zones (Europe), Asia, Northern / Southern Europe, Africa than before. The disadvantage, as with all previous controls, is the longer distances and longer waiting times. But this is already being reduced today by body scanners at airports, which are supplemented by health radar.
This scenario also helps that researchers and scientists worldwide, who can jointly research solutions and countermeasures, and that the solidarity-based help of the world community (UN, relief and emergency funds, etc.) is retained.

Our global community on a large scale, like our society on a small scale, is becoming more free, more democratic, more responsible, but at the price of more fear of the future and contact body anonymity, the resiliently beneficial SOCIAL DIY Doing-It-Yourself (40%) of the we-determine-everything- itself dominates and is supported by a more transparent-transformer-transitive TRANS-POLITIZATION (30%) until its withdrawal, the unpopular HAMMER-DANCE bidding laws (20%) are tolerated until then, which SMART-DISTANCing (10%) leaves behind multicultural scars and social traces, but does not dominate us. The respective pairs SOCIAL-DIY and TRANS-POLICY such as SMART-DISTANCE and HAMMER-DANCE are like the inseparable 2 sides of a coin, a double-edged sword of Damocles, a dodgy Janus face and at times a seemingly harmonious Yin & Yang.

 

Post corona scenarios & futures . the finale (part 3)

Prolog
According to the classic question of whether you can predict or anticipate the future, I usually say that you can foretell or forecast the futures (not the same like scenarios). It is not the psychology of fortune telling, but the preview research of futures sciences. And thanks to artificial intelligence and its simulations and prognosis, this has become faster, more effective, more evident, and more efficient. 

Every future has many scenarios, but not every scenario has (one) future. I know that I do not know has become we know everything is possible. Pandemics and epidemics are historically nothing new, but they also follow our megatrends, such as globalization, urbanization, mobility, … The “pandemization” is anthropologically a worldwide immunization process of the cosmis universe evolution, and a symbol of the age of the Anthropocene, the epoch of humans as an influencing factor of all earth planet development(s).

 

What comes after the pandemic – how should it go on?

First of all, there will be an ad-hoc return to everyday normality until the daily grind, as is so often the case after negative headlines. We are now, unfortunately, used to quickly forget or ignore panic news, be it food scandals (eggs, rotten meat, …) or storm victims. And we are only too happy to displace unpleasant things, such as cancer warnings on smoking boxes, and hide them according to the motto that happens to me-nothing. However, this is not a step backwards into forgetting self-denial, but is important for social and emotional stability. But little by little, from one generation to the next (X, Y, Z, Corona-Plus C +, …), a lot will change in a sustainable, long-term and permanent way, as global society is like a big ship that takes a long time to turn and change direction , but then continuously makes its way.

 

What is the outlook – Outlook – for 2020 to 2030?

In the scenarios TRANS-POLICY (30%) by the state and SOCIAL-DIY (40%) driven by the citizens, forward-looking futures can be seen for our world after Corona 19-20 and before Covid 21. The citizens take over the tasks of the state bit by bit self-organization and governments are increasingly being replaced by artificial intelligence and the technocrats are taking control of the central task. The more direct democracy regulates and enables everyone to participate in all community and overall social projects and decisions. Scenarios such as HAMMER-DANCE (20%) and SMART-DISTANCE (10%) are integrated into the coordination processes and advice systems and are therefore the result from the inside instead of from above.

 

As a result, the economy follows consumers and citizens. Artificial intelligence (AI) made unconditional basic income possible for everyone, and so a new wave of start-ups started. This STARTUP-BOOMing (40%) offset the gross social balance of the global economic crises 2020 and 2030, and so the economic crash, the ECO-DOOMing (20%), was softer than feared. After or with the digital age of GOLDEN ZOOMing (30%), the bio age epoch grew, and both promoted and expanded as a result. Through AI, the biological age was higher for most thanks to individual medicine, which our bodies use & fill with energy and vitamins, food, water and medicine provided as needed.
More and more could be 120 years and older, and mortality from common diseases (heart, cancer, …) decreased due to counter-medications such as preventive medicine. The AI ​​also made it possible to clone organs so that no one had to wait for them, nor was organ trading necessary. And through artificial reproduction like 3D printers, food could be produced at home and SOCIAL-GLOOMing (10%), i.e. make consumers’ moods and unhappyness disappear; because you no longer had to go to a supermarket or shop – they disappear by-time – everything was automatically ordered and delivered online. Anti-aging (geriatric age-appropriate medicine), organic organ engineering, designer babies, copy clones and more will be the revolutionary results of the bio-tech era.

Our earth life is not an earthquake and remains an experience, and knows more progress instead of way back, it is in the end a challenge that takes us to higher dimensions with space travel and colonization of other exo-planets (living worlds) and prepares us for them.

The “pandemization is another megatrend such as globalization, urbanization, mobility, human-artificial super-intelligences to digital virtualization of all areas of work and life.

Order here my book “Futures Pandemics”: go to the Shop

Author of the article as of the book: Roman Retzbach (R.Retzbach@Future-Institute.com; R.Retzbach@ZukunftsInstitut.com) is a futurist for over 30 years and speaker of the Future.Institute, a global network of futures organizations.

Keywords:
Hidden Champions, Globalization, Urbanization, Mobility, R/Evolution, Adaptation, Artificial Intelligence, Self-Driving Cars, Sharing Society, Individual Transport, Basic Income, Generation Corona +, Gender Gap, WoMen, Female Power, VUCA

Future Pandemic(s) Post Corona Future 2020-2030: What comes after this pandemic, how does our life, the economy, work change …? how is it going on with our life, our business, economy, health, society, …?  Here are my 4 scenarios as a futurist: 

Order my new book “Futures Pandemics” here: go to the Shop

Megatrend „Pandemication – Pandemization“

 Post Corona scenarios & futures . the new beginning (part 1)

Read about the 4 new scenarios after the pandemic(s) crisis: STARTUP-BOOM (40%), GOLDEN-ZOOM (30%), ECO-DOOM (20%), SOCIAL-GLOOM (10%)

What happens after the corona pandemic, will there be a Covid-20, -21? How is our economy, society and our coexistence going? Many questions that should be answered here. On April 1st, 2020 I published my latest book “Future(s) Pandemic(s)”, which, in the middle of the crisis, provides answers on how you can survive with, after and without virus infections, save your business, secure your job and have time for family and friends. Will there be many company crashes, mass insolvencies, high suicide rates and that our children will lose body contact with others because the privacy has been extended to 1.50 to 2m? And will cashless payments now, masks worn in public as they have been in Asia for years – and virtual instead of real physical sex also become everyday life for western people? Yes and no, because like a big ship it takes 1-2 generations before you get used to and master these global epidemics and pandemics – without forgetting them as so often; and a new contact-free body exchange becomes everyday, e.g. over suits that astronauts and professional gamers already use today. Such sensor rubber and exoskeleton suits are already everyday life in Japan for lonely singles to the elderly to maintain physical and mental freedom – but this does not make it a killer application for long-distance contact for all of us, we are too different and grown up in another was for that.

And what does the future of the pandemic(s) look like, will we defeat it like the plague “permanently” or only temporarily, have antidotes or will we be exterminated in the end? As the viruses continue to develop and become more radical, there is reason to fear that the time after a pandemic is just the waiting time until the next. But because many countries are becoming increasingly preventive and prepared, the danger time is reduced to days. What is certain is that with the growth of our world population and further urbanization, such biological medical disasters will return. Urbanization is slow and small in Europe, but in Asia, especially China and India and Africa, more and more so-called megacities are emerging, i.e. larger than 10 million, and metacities with 20 million are more densely and more densely populated, with more space and resource consumption. There are already over 100 town locations like these.

And what will these mother nature’s biological weapons do to us humans in the future? On the one hand they immunize us according to the secret cosmic evolution plan, on the other side they warn us of our mortality and fragility. As we continue to grow so rapidly, we will soon enter the space age and live on other planets – we need immunity for that. Otherwise we are like in the history of many indigenous people (South America, …) who were surprised by the ‘discoverers’ and their diseases and who died from ‘harmless’ infections in an unusual and unprepared manner. The immunization of the earth’s population is a cosmological master plan, but not the extent and how long it takes us to heal – these are homemade problems of world research.

So let’s look back at the time today from the future, i.e. winter 2020, 2025 and 2030, and design an overall scenario consisting of 4 building blocks or individual images. There are and were rapid changes and slow-decelerated transformations, hard interventions and ‘softly’ creeping innovations, i.e. some immediately and others passively continuously over time, say in a short, medium and long term.

The first scenario is a fast and drastic one, namely the ECO-DOOM (20% probability), i.e. economic crash, system down, consumption blockage, culture shock, connected with corporate insolvencies, company sales, business triggers. Small and medium-sized companies become indebted due to the loss of sales, corporations stop innovations and new products, because in many cases the money flows into salaries and the social sector. However, this also creates equal opportunities, because whoever starts again best and quickly transforms and reorganizes the situation can gain market share. These are above all the online providers, digital business shops, virtual stores that will be among the new hidden champions and future winners. The overall market is shaken, restructured and partly re-divided in all sectors, and there are both weak and strong market shifts, e.g. on digital trade / e-commerce.
For employees and staff, it means that they have to adapt to many innovations and fear for their jobs because of the now faster-paced digitalization and increased use of artificial intelligence.

Because even if the second scenario of the SOCIAL GLOOM (10% probability) is delayed  between gloomy to twilight zone – this will be after the pandemics harder and more sustainable. Because on the one side, many private households have empty the store shelves and so quickly do not need anything anymore or have spent too much house money for security and have to save. The vacation fund is not filled up as quickly as it was partly emptied; you either cannot travel yet, are afraid of airline bankruptcies or a new pandemic on holidays, so that it would be difficult or impossible for you to return home. A lot has been read in the media about corporate bankruptcies in the Corona period, which is why investments in private and business are very reserved. This hits the industry hard as a boomerang.

This contrasts with the third scenario, which occurs in small, quiet steps but ultimately with a big leap forward. In GOLDEN ZOOM (30% probability), digitization is making further progress. It is transferred from school institutions and children day care centers to homework, teaching and creative, as well as online games. Citizens buy more and further on the Internet and have it sent to them, which supports this with falling shipping costs. And also the employees in their home offices learn to design their work virtually, to organize and to do everything together with their teams in video meetings as before in the office – this completely and holistically changes the working world towards a new work culture in the long term. Since 2010, digitization has not really made any headway in Europe, compared to USAmerica and Asia, and has barely got off the starting blocks if you look at Alibaba, Amazon, Google & co. opposite compared, who are each market leaders in global online trading. This crisis is digging deep into the world of work and society, but it also makes teleworking socially acceptable and even more natural in professional life. This positive effect is only ‘overshadowed’ by the fact that the development of artificial intelligence is accelerated in the course of the coming cost pressure on companies, so that it can increasingly replace employees and staff.

And last but not least, but not at the end, but just starting the fourth scenario with the new STARTUP BOOM (40% probability). The current as well as new founders are in the starting blocks, are flexible in small sharing offices or operate from home, and are therefore flexible, yet innovatively capable without large R&D centers as well as competently equipped. They are the new hidden champion superstars, either in partnership with larger companies at eye level or as the upcoming new Facebooks & Alibabas. This further flexibilizes and mobilizes our working world, captures and mitigates the job cuts and creates an even larger network of freelancers, who together create new and next-generation medium-sized companies (SME) in their added value.

The future or futures are a VUCA interplay – the future is and will be even more volatile (V), uncertain (U), complex (C) and ambiguous (A); it’s a mindset change mindset and stands for a new beginning of our thinking, away from previous simple patterns. Like a phoenix from the ashes, new ventures from the corona darkness and pandemic sinking will appear on the surface and usher in a new era as the CoronaPlus (C+) generation.

 STARTUP-BOOMing (40%) compensates or balances the ECO-DOOMing (20%) in the gross social balance sheet, while GOLDEN-ZOOMing (30%) bridges sustainable SOCIAL-GLOOMing (10%) in the long term.

 

Read in 4 new scenarios how we work after the corona pandemic, love and live: SOCIAL-DIY (40%), TRANS-POLICY (30%), HAMMER-DANCE (20%), SMART-DISTANCE (10%)

 

Post corona scenarios & futures . the drama (part 2)

If we look at the behavior and strategies in the business and private sectors, we see two dimensions, on the one hand an open field with cosmopolitanism, in it the reopening of the world (no closed borders, no travel stops, …) and the ongoing megatrend globalization. This contrasts with a closed system with border closings and isolation of individual countries to continents such as hard-pressed protection policies (sharp border controls, high tariffs on imports, trade war, sanctionism, fortress Europe …), which is hardly possible for a country to be self-sufficient, i.e. such restrictions and restrictions usually harm of their own economy most (see Iran, Iraq, Cuba, … as historical examples) as that they really protect against external dangers.
The second axis of good and evil runs between state full / partial control (big brother surveillance, …) or the call for the strong hand of the state (Russia, China, Turkey, …), the opposite side prefers a development in the direction direct (people’s) democracy to panocracy, in

If this SOCIAL-DIY (40% probability) functions as an open system between a globally open and self-made scenario, it requires the political responsibility of many citizens (example: Switzerland, …). In such a tendence trend and quiet revolution, many authorities are first decentralized, then dismantled, and ultimately a national / basic income is created, where nobody has to work for money anymore, but is provided with the basic necessities necessary for life. There would be a large number of mobile offices here, many becoming founders and creative people. I.e. we all work everywhere. This will be commonplace in the future with self-driving automobiles, when we no longer have to concentrate on driving, and move without a traffic jam and stops in autonomous vehicles in hypertunnels, drones or meglev / magnetic levitation trains to air shuttles. And this would also promote artificial intelligence, because if this replaces all workplaces, we will be able to do everything we want, virtually anywhere, but we won’t have to sit in an office or act in a production halls.

SMART-DISTANCE (10% probability) goes in a similar direction, but here you can observe a more private retreat on the one side (home office) and a more distant behavior towards your fellow human beings, the distance and privacy are reduced to 4 to 6 feet extended. The physical culture suffers especially children in the exchange of contacts when playing with others, no shaking hands, no kissing of friendship, no love kisses, hugging, and sex is limited and excluded – no permissions for prostitution or only practiced virtually (love dolls so-called sexy maids, petting software, online love toys & joy, long-distance apps, …). This may get used to indirectly and slowly over time with future(s) generations, but it takes some hyper generations. But there is a little more worry, fear and distrust in contact with other people in our everyday lives, and here and there protective masks like condoms become our everyday companions in pockets everywhere and at all times.

Since our penchant for freedom and self-determined democracy can no longer be reversed, the following two scenarios decrease over time, because we are determined by others.

The HAMMER-DANCE (20% probability) between moral ethics and law as a middle way between joy and burden are characterized by isolating boundaries (curfew, ban on meetings, avoidance of contact, …) and state intervention, quasi adaptively adapted to the respective situation and checked by experts. I.e. one loosens the restrictions in the event of a decline and barricades ‘immediately’ in the event of danger regardless of losses and high social collateral damage, closes and opens in alternation. Since this interferes deeply and widely with people’s privacy, it is a tolerated but not accepted nor acceptable, an unwillingly accepted and undesirable political instrument of resilience.

 

Rather, in the fourth and last scenario TRANS-POLICY (30% probability), foreign and domestic policy is carried out in a globally controlled manner and expanded to include health systems. In addition to border controls, there are health checks at airports and borders with a division into risky and safe countries, as is already the case according to the assessment of the political stability of a country, an A to AAAAA rating system for ‘health creditworthiness’. I.e. as with a filter system, all inflows and outflows of goods and people are not only checked occasionally, but continuously. This is a semi-open, semi-closed system – depending on the perspective. And this will surely act and divide more into zones (Europe), Asia, Northern / Southern Europe, Africa than before. The disadvantage, as with all previous controls, is the longer distances and longer waiting times. But this is already being reduced today by body scanners at airports, which are supplemented by health radar.
This scenario also helps that researchers and scientists worldwide, who can jointly research solutions and countermeasures, and that the solidarity-based help of the world community (UN, relief and emergency funds, etc.) is retained.

Our global community on a large scale, like our society on a small scale, is becoming more free, more democratic, more responsible, but at the price of more fear of the future and contact body anonymity, the resiliently beneficial SOCIAL DIY Doing-It-Yourself (40%) of the we-determine-everything- itself dominates and is supported by a more transparent-transformer-transitive TRANS-POLITIZATION (30%) until its withdrawal, the unpopular HAMMER-DANCE bidding laws (20%) are tolerated until then, which SMART-DISTANCing (10%) leaves behind multicultural scars and social traces, but does not dominate us. The respective pairs SOCIAL-DIY and TRANS-POLICY such as SMART-DISTANCE and HAMMER-DANCE are like the inseparable 2 sides of a coin, a double-edged sword of Damocles, a dodgy Janus face and at times a seemingly harmonious Yin & Yang.

 

Post corona scenarios & futures . the finale (part 3)

Prolog
According to the classic question of whether you can predict or anticipate the future, I usually say that you can foretell or forecast the futures (not the same like scenarios). It is not the psychology of fortune telling, but the preview research of futures sciences. And thanks to artificial intelligence and its simulations and prognosis, this has become faster, more effective, more evident, and more efficient. 

Every future has many scenarios, but not every scenario has (one) future. I know that I do not know has become we know everything is possible. Pandemics and epidemics are historically nothing new, but they also follow our megatrends, such as globalization, urbanization, mobility, … The “pandemization” is anthropologically a worldwide immunization process of the cosmis universe evolution, and a symbol of the age of the Anthropocene, the epoch of humans as an influencing factor of all earth planet development(s).

 

What comes after the pandemic – how should it go on?

First of all, there will be an ad-hoc return to everyday normality until the daily grind, as is so often the case after negative headlines. We are now, unfortunately, used to quickly forget or ignore panic news, be it food scandals (eggs, rotten meat, …) or storm victims. And we are only too happy to displace unpleasant things, such as cancer warnings on smoking boxes, and hide them according to the motto that happens to me-nothing. However, this is not a step backwards into forgetting self-denial, but is important for social and emotional stability. But little by little, from one generation to the next (X, Y, Z, Corona-Plus C +, …), a lot will change in a sustainable, long-term and permanent way, as global society is like a big ship that takes a long time to turn and change direction , but then continuously makes its way.

 

What is the outlook – Outlook – for 2020 to 2030?

In the scenarios TRANS-POLICY (30%) by the state and SOCIAL-DIY (40%) driven by the citizens, forward-looking futures can be seen for our world after Corona 19-20 and before Covid 21. The citizens take over the tasks of the state bit by bit self-organization and governments are increasingly being replaced by artificial intelligence and the technocrats are taking control of the central task. The more direct democracy regulates and enables everyone to participate in all community and overall social projects and decisions. Scenarios such as HAMMER-DANCE (20%) and SMART-DISTANCE (10%) are integrated into the coordination processes and advice systems and are therefore the result from the inside instead of from above.

 

As a result, the economy follows consumers and citizens. Artificial intelligence (AI) made unconditional basic income possible for everyone, and so a new wave of start-ups started. This STARTUP-BOOMing (40%) offset the gross social balance of the global economic crises 2020 and 2030, and so the economic crash, the ECO-DOOMing (20%), was softer than feared. After or with the digital age of GOLDEN ZOOMing (30%), the bio age epoch grew, and both promoted and expanded as a result. Through AI, the biological age was higher for most thanks to individual medicine, which our bodies use & fill with energy and vitamins, food, water and medicine provided as needed.
More and more could be 120 years and older, and mortality from common diseases (heart, cancer, …) decreased due to counter-medications such as preventive medicine. The AI ​​also made it possible to clone organs so that no one had to wait for them, nor was organ trading necessary. And through artificial reproduction like 3D printers, food could be produced at home and SOCIAL-GLOOMing (10%), i.e. make consumers’ moods and unhappyness disappear; because you no longer had to go to a supermarket or shop – they disappear by-time – everything was automatically ordered and delivered online. Anti-aging (geriatric age-appropriate medicine), organic organ engineering, designer babies, copy clones and more will be the revolutionary results of the bio-tech era.

Our earth life is not an earthquake and remains an experience, and knows more progress instead of way back, it is in the end a challenge that takes us to higher dimensions with space travel and colonization of other exo-planets (living worlds) and prepares us for them.

The “pandemization is another megatrend such as globalization, urbanization, mobility, human-artificial super-intelligences to digital virtualization of all areas of work and life.

Order here my book “Futures Pandemics”: go to the Shop

Author of the article as of the book: Roman Retzbach (R.Retzbach@Future-Institute.com; R.Retzbach@ZukunftsInstitut.com) is a futurist for over 30 years and speaker of the Future.Institute, a global network of futures organizations.

Keywords:
Hidden Champions, Globalization, Urbanization, Mobility, R/Evolution, Adaptation, Artificial Intelligence, Self-Driving Cars, Sharing Society, Individual Transport, Basic Income, Generation Corona +, Gender Gap, WoMen, Female Power, VUCA

Future Pandemic(s) Post Corona Future 2020-2030: What comes after this pandemic, how does our life, the economy, work change …? how is it going on with our life, our business, economy, health, society, …?  Here are my 4 scenarios as a futurist: 

Order my new book “Futures Pandemics” here: go to the Shop

Megatrend „Pandemication – Pandemization“

 Post corona scenarios & futures . the drama (part 1)

Read in 4 new scenarios how we work after the corona pandemic, love and live: SOCIAL-DIY (40%), TRANS-POLICY (30%), HAMMER-DANCE (20%), SMART-DISTANCE (10%)

If we look at the behavior and strategies in the business and private sectors, we see two dimensions, on the one hand an open field with cosmopolitanism, in it the reopening of the world (no closed borders, no travel stops, …) and the ongoing megatrend globalization. This contrasts with a closed system with border closings and isolation of individual countries to continents such as hard-pressed protection policies (sharp border controls, high tariffs on imports, trade war, sanctionism, fortress Europe …), which is hardly possible for a country to be self-sufficient, i.e. such restrictions and restrictions usually harm of their own economy most (see Iran, Iraq, Cuba, … as historical examples) as that they really protect against external dangers.
The second axis of good and evil runs between state full / partial control (big brother surveillance, …) or the call for the strong hand of the state (Russia, China, Turkey, …), the opposite side prefers a development in the direction direct (people’s) democracy to panocracy, in

If this SOCIAL-DIY (40% probability) functions as an open system between a globally open and self-made scenario, it requires the political responsibility of many citizens (example: Switzerland, …). In such a tendence trend and quiet revolution, many authorities are first decentralized, then dismantled, and ultimately a national / basic income is created, where nobody has to work for money anymore, but is provided with the basic necessities necessary for life. There would be a large number of mobile offices here, many becoming founders and creative people. I.e. we all work everywhere. This will be commonplace in the future with self-driving automobiles, when we no longer have to concentrate on driving, and move without a traffic jam and stops in autonomous vehicles in hypertunnels, drones or meglev / magnetic levitation trains to air shuttles. And this would also promote artificial intelligence, because if this replaces all workplaces, we will be able to do everything we want, virtually anywhere, but we won’t have to sit in an office or act in a production halls.

SMART-DISTANCE (10% probability) goes in a similar direction, but here you can observe a more private retreat on the one side (home office) and a more distant behavior towards your fellow human beings, the distance and privacy are reduced to 4 to 6 feet extended. The physical culture suffers especially children in the exchange of contacts when playing with others, no shaking hands, no kissing of friendship, no love kisses, hugging, and sex is limited and excluded – no permissions for prostitution or only practiced virtually (love dolls so-called sexy maids, petting software, online love toys & joy, long-distance apps, …). This may get used to indirectly and slowly over time with future(s) generations, but it takes some hyper generations. But there is a little more worry, fear and distrust in contact with other people in our everyday lives, and here and there protective masks like condoms become our everyday companions in pockets everywhere and at all times.

Since our penchant for freedom and self-determined democracy can no longer be reversed, the following two scenarios decrease over time, because we are determined by others.

The HAMMER-DANCE (20% probability) between moral ethics and law as a middle way between joy and burden are characterized by isolating boundaries (curfew, ban on meetings, avoidance of contact, …) and state intervention, quasi adaptively adapted to the respective situation and checked by experts. I.e. one loosens the restrictions in the event of a decline and barricades ‘immediately’ in the event of danger regardless of losses and high social collateral damage, closes and opens in alternation. Since this interferes deeply and widely with people’s privacy, it is a tolerated but not accepted nor acceptable, an unwillingly accepted and undesirable political instrument of resilience.

 

Rather, in the fourth and last scenario TRANS-POLICY (30% probability), foreign and domestic policy is carried out in a globally controlled manner and expanded to include health systems. In addition to border controls, there are health checks at airports and borders with a division into risky and safe countries, as is already the case according to the assessment of the political stability of a country, an A to AAAAA rating system for ‘health creditworthiness’. I.e. as with a filter system, all inflows and outflows of goods and people are not only checked occasionally, but continuously. This is a semi-open, semi-closed system – depending on the perspective. And this will surely act and divide more into zones (Europe), Asia, Northern / Southern Europe, Africa than before. The disadvantage, as with all previous controls, is the longer distances and longer waiting times. But this is already being reduced today by body scanners at airports, which are supplemented by health radar.
This scenario also helps that researchers and scientists worldwide, who can jointly research solutions and countermeasures, and that the solidarity-based help of the world community (UN, relief and emergency funds, etc.) is retained.

Our global community on a large scale, like our society on a small scale, is becoming more free, more democratic, more responsible, but at the price of more fear of the future and contact body anonymity, the resiliently beneficial SOCIAL DIY Doing-It-Yourself (40%) of the we-determine-everything- itself dominates and is supported by a more transparent-transformer-transitive TRANS-POLITIZATION (30%) until its withdrawal, the unpopular HAMMER-DANCE bidding laws (20%) are tolerated until then, which SMART-DISTANCing (10%) leaves behind multicultural scars and social traces, but does not dominate us. The respective pairs SOCIAL-DIY and TRANS-POLICY such as SMART-DISTANCE and HAMMER-DANCE are like the inseparable 2 sides of a coin, a double-edged sword of Damocles, a dodgy Janus face and at times a seemingly harmonious Yin & Yang.

 Post Corona scenarios & futures . the new beginning (part 2)

Read about the 4 new scenarios after the pandemic(s) crisis: STARTUP-BOOM (40%), GOLDEN-ZOOM (30%), ECO-DOOM (20%), SOCIAL-GLOOM (10%)

What happens after the corona pandemic, will there be a Covid-20, -21? How is our economy, society and our coexistence going? Many questions that should be answered here. On April 1st, 2020 I published my latest book “Future(s) Pandemic(s)”, which, in the middle of the crisis, provides answers on how you can survive with, after and without virus infections, save your business, secure your job and have time for family and friends. Will there be many company crashes, mass insolvencies, high suicide rates and that our children will lose body contact with others because the privacy has been extended to 1.50 to 2m? And will cashless payments now, masks worn in public as they have been in Asia for years – and virtual instead of real physical sex also become everyday life for western people? Yes and no, because like a big ship it takes 1-2 generations before you get used to and master these global epidemics and pandemics – without forgetting them as so often; and a new contact-free body exchange becomes everyday, e.g. over suits that astronauts and professional gamers already use today. Such sensor rubber and exoskeleton suits are already everyday life in Japan for lonely singles to the elderly to maintain physical and mental freedom – but this does not make it a killer application for long-distance contact for all of us, we are too different and grown up in another was for that.

And what does the future of the pandemic(s) look like, will we defeat it like the plague “permanently” or only temporarily, have antidotes or will we be exterminated in the end? As the viruses continue to develop and become more radical, there is reason to fear that the time after a pandemic is just the waiting time until the next. But because many countries are becoming increasingly preventive and prepared, the danger time is reduced to days. What is certain is that with the growth of our world population and further urbanization, such biological medical disasters will return. Urbanization is slow and small in Europe, but in Asia, especially China and India and Africa, more and more so-called megacities are emerging, i.e. larger than 10 million, and metacities with 20 million are more densely and more densely populated, with more space and resource consumption. There are already over 100 town locations like these.

And what will these mother nature’s biological weapons do to us humans in the future? On the one hand they immunize us according to the secret cosmic evolution plan, on the other side they warn us of our mortality and fragility. As we continue to grow so rapidly, we will soon enter the space age and live on other planets – we need immunity for that. Otherwise we are like in the history of many indigenous people (South America, …) who were surprised by the ‘discoverers’ and their diseases and who died from ‘harmless’ infections in an unusual and unprepared manner. The immunization of the earth’s population is a cosmological master plan, but not the extent and how long it takes us to heal – these are homemade problems of world research.

So let’s look back at the time today from the future, i.e. winter 2020, 2025 and 2030, and design an overall scenario consisting of 4 building blocks or individual images. There are and were rapid changes and slow-decelerated transformations, hard interventions and ‘softly’ creeping innovations, i.e. some immediately and others passively continuously over time, say in a short, medium and long term.

The first scenario is a fast and drastic one, namely the ECO-DOOM (20% probability), i.e. economic crash, system down, consumption blockage, culture shock, connected with corporate insolvencies, company sales, business triggers. Small and medium-sized companies become indebted due to the loss of sales, corporations stop innovations and new products, because in many cases the money flows into salaries and the social sector. However, this also creates equal opportunities, because whoever starts again best and quickly transforms and reorganizes the situation can gain market share. These are above all the online providers, digital business shops, virtual stores that will be among the new hidden champions and future winners. The overall market is shaken, restructured and partly re-divided in all sectors, and there are both weak and strong market shifts, e.g. on digital trade / e-commerce.
For employees and staff, it means that they have to adapt to many innovations and fear for their jobs because of the now faster-paced digitalization and increased use of artificial intelligence.

Because even if the second scenario of the SOCIAL GLOOM (10% probability) is delayed  between gloomy to twilight zone – this will be after the pandemics harder and more sustainable. Because on the one side, many private households have empty the store shelves and so quickly do not need anything anymore or have spent too much house money for security and have to save. The vacation fund is not filled up as quickly as it was partly emptied; you either cannot travel yet, are afraid of airline bankruptcies or a new pandemic on holidays, so that it would be difficult or impossible for you to return home. A lot has been read in the media about corporate bankruptcies in the Corona period, which is why investments in private and business are very reserved. This hits the industry hard as a boomerang.

This contrasts with the third scenario, which occurs in small, quiet steps but ultimately with a big leap forward. In GOLDEN ZOOM (30% probability), digitization is making further progress. It is transferred from school institutions and children day care centers to homework, teaching and creative, as well as online games. Citizens buy more and further on the Internet and have it sent to them, which supports this with falling shipping costs. And also the employees in their home offices learn to design their work virtually, to organize and to do everything together with their teams in video meetings as before in the office – this completely and holistically changes the working world towards a new work culture in the long term. Since 2010, digitization has not really made any headway in Europe, compared to USAmerica and Asia, and has barely got off the starting blocks if you look at Alibaba, Amazon, Google & co. opposite compared, who are each market leaders in global online trading. This crisis is digging deep into the world of work and society, but it also makes teleworking socially acceptable and even more natural in professional life. This positive effect is only ‘overshadowed’ by the fact that the development of artificial intelligence is accelerated in the course of the coming cost pressure on companies, so that it can increasingly replace employees and staff.

And last but not least, but not at the end, but just starting the fourth scenario with the new STARTUP BOOM (40% probability). The current as well as new founders are in the starting blocks, are flexible in small sharing offices or operate from home, and are therefore flexible, yet innovatively capable without large R&D centers as well as competently equipped. They are the new hidden champion superstars, either in partnership with larger companies at eye level or as the upcoming new Facebooks & Alibabas. This further flexibilizes and mobilizes our working world, captures and mitigates the job cuts and creates an even larger network of freelancers, who together create new and next-generation medium-sized companies (SME) in their added value.

The future or futures are a VUCA interplay – the future is and will be even more volatile (V), uncertain (U), complex (C) and ambiguous (A); it’s a mindset change mindset and stands for a new beginning of our thinking, away from previous simple patterns. Like a phoenix from the ashes, new ventures from the corona darkness and pandemic sinking will appear on the surface and usher in a new era as the CoronaPlus (C+) generation.

 STARTUP-BOOMing (40%) compensates or balances the ECO-DOOMing (20%) in the gross social balance sheet, while GOLDEN-ZOOMing (30%) bridges sustainable SOCIAL-GLOOMing (10%) in the long term.

Post corona scenarios & futures . the finale (part 3)

Prolog
According to the classic question of whether you can predict or anticipate the future, I usually say that you can foretell or forecast the futures (not the same like scenarios). It is not the psychology of fortune telling, but the preview research of futures sciences. And thanks to artificial intelligence and its simulations and prognosis, this has become faster, more effective, more evident, and more efficient. 

Every future has many scenarios, but not every scenario has (one) future. I know that I do not know has become we know everything is possible. Pandemics and epidemics are historically nothing new, but they also follow our megatrends, such as globalization, urbanization, mobility, … The “pandemization” is anthropologically a worldwide immunization process of the cosmis universe evolution, and a symbol of the age of the Anthropocene, the epoch of humans as an influencing factor of all earth planet development(s).

 

What comes after the pandemic – how should it go on?

First of all, there will be an ad-hoc return to everyday normality until the daily grind, as is so often the case after negative headlines. We are now, unfortunately, used to quickly forget or ignore panic news, be it food scandals (eggs, rotten meat, …) or storm victims. And we are only too happy to displace unpleasant things, such as cancer warnings on smoking boxes, and hide them according to the motto that happens to me-nothing. However, this is not a step backwards into forgetting self-denial, but is important for social and emotional stability. But little by little, from one generation to the next (X, Y, Z, Corona-Plus C +, …), a lot will change in a sustainable, long-term and permanent way, as global society is like a big ship that takes a long time to turn and change direction , but then continuously makes its way.

 

What is the outlook – Outlook – for 2020 to 2030?

In the scenarios TRANS-POLICY (30%) by the state and SOCIAL-DIY (40%) driven by the citizens, forward-looking futures can be seen for our world after Corona 19-20 and before Covid 21. The citizens take over the tasks of the state bit by bit self-organization and governments are increasingly being replaced by artificial intelligence and the technocrats are taking control of the central task. The more direct democracy regulates and enables everyone to participate in all community and overall social projects and decisions. Scenarios such as HAMMER-DANCE (20%) and SMART-DISTANCE (10%) are integrated into the coordination processes and advice systems and are therefore the result from the inside instead of from above.

 

As a result, the economy follows consumers and citizens. Artificial intelligence (AI) made unconditional basic income possible for everyone, and so a new wave of start-ups started. This STARTUP-BOOMing (40%) offset the gross social balance of the global economic crises 2020 and 2030, and so the economic crash, the ECO-DOOMing (20%), was softer than feared. After or with the digital age of GOLDEN ZOOMing (30%), the bio age epoch grew, and both promoted and expanded as a result. Through AI, the biological age was higher for most thanks to individual medicine, which our bodies use & fill with energy and vitamins, food, water and medicine provided as needed.
More and more could be 120 years and older, and mortality from common diseases (heart, cancer, …) decreased due to counter-medications such as preventive medicine. The AI ​​also made it possible to clone organs so that no one had to wait for them, nor was organ trading necessary. And through artificial reproduction like 3D printers, food could be produced at home and SOCIAL-GLOOMing (10%), i.e. make consumers’ moods and unhappyness disappear; because you no longer had to go to a supermarket or shop – they disappear by-time – everything was automatically ordered and delivered online. Anti-aging (geriatric age-appropriate medicine), organic organ engineering, designer babies, copy clones and more will be the revolutionary results of the bio-tech era.

Our earth life is not an earthquake and remains an experience, and knows more progress instead of way back, it is in the end a challenge that takes us to higher dimensions with space travel and colonization of other exo-planets (living worlds) and prepares us for them.

The “pandemization is another megatrend such as globalization, urbanization, mobility, human-artificial super-intelligences to digital virtualization of all areas of work and life.

Order here my book “Futures Pandemics”: go to the Shop

Author of the article as of the book: Roman Retzbach (R.Retzbach@Future-Institute.com; R.Retzbach@ZukunftsInstitut.com) is a futurist for over 30 years and speaker of the Future.Institute, a global network of futures organizations.

Keywords:
Hidden Champions, Globalization, Urbanization, Mobility, R/Evolution, Adaptation, Artificial Intelligence, Self-Driving Cars, Sharing Society, Individual Transport, Basic Income, Generation Corona +, Gender Gap, WoMen, Female Power, VUCA

Future Pandemic(s) Post Corona Future 2020-2030: What comes after this pandemic, how does our life, the economy, work change …? how is it going on with our life, our business, economy, health, society, …?  Here are my 4 scenarios as a futurist: 

Order my new book “Futures Pandemics” here: go to the Shop

Megatrend „Pandemication – Pandemization“

 Post Corona scenarios & futures . the new beginning (part 1)

Read about the 4 new scenarios after the pandemic(s) crisis: STARTUP-BOOM (40%), GOLDEN-ZOOM (30%), ECO-DOOM (20%), SOCIAL-GLOOM (10%)

What happens after the corona pandemic, will there be a Covid-20, -21? How is our economy, society and our coexistence going? Many questions that should be answered here. On April 1st, 2020 I published my latest book “Future(s) Pandemic(s)”, which, in the middle of the crisis, provides answers on how you can survive with, after and without virus infections, save your business, secure your job and have time for family and friends. Will there be many company crashes, mass insolvencies, high suicide rates and that our children will lose body contact with others because the privacy has been extended to 1.50 to 2m? And will cashless payments now, masks worn in public as they have been in Asia for years – and virtual instead of real physical sex also become everyday life for western people? Yes and no, because like a big ship it takes 1-2 generations before you get used to and master these global epidemics and pandemics – without forgetting them as so often; and a new contact-free body exchange becomes everyday, e.g. over suits that astronauts and professional gamers already use today. Such sensor rubber and exoskeleton suits are already everyday life in Japan for lonely singles to the elderly to maintain physical and mental freedom – but this does not make it a killer application for long-distance contact for all of us, we are too different and grown up in another was for that.

And what does the future of the pandemic(s) look like, will we defeat it like the plague “permanently” or only temporarily, have antidotes or will we be exterminated in the end? As the viruses continue to develop and become more radical, there is reason to fear that the time after a pandemic is just the waiting time until the next. But because many countries are becoming increasingly preventive and prepared, the danger time is reduced to days. What is certain is that with the growth of our world population and further urbanization, such biological medical disasters will return. Urbanization is slow and small in Europe, but in Asia, especially China and India and Africa, more and more so-called megacities are emerging, i.e. larger than 10 million, and metacities with 20 million are more densely and more densely populated, with more space and resource consumption. There are already over 100 town locations like these.

And what will these mother nature’s biological weapons do to us humans in the future? On the one hand they immunize us according to the secret cosmic evolution plan, on the other side they warn us of our mortality and fragility. As we continue to grow so rapidly, we will soon enter the space age and live on other planets – we need immunity for that. Otherwise we are like in the history of many indigenous people (South America, …) who were surprised by the ‘discoverers’ and their diseases and who died from ‘harmless’ infections in an unusual and unprepared manner. The immunization of the earth’s population is a cosmological master plan, but not the extent and how long it takes us to heal – these are homemade problems of world research.

So let’s look back at the time today from the future, i.e. winter 2020, 2025 and 2030, and design an overall scenario consisting of 4 building blocks or individual images. There are and were rapid changes and slow-decelerated transformations, hard interventions and ‘softly’ creeping innovations, i.e. some immediately and others passively continuously over time, say in a short, medium and long term.

The first scenario is a fast and drastic one, namely the ECO-DOOM (20% probability), i.e. economic crash, system down, consumption blockage, culture shock, connected with corporate insolvencies, company sales, business triggers. Small and medium-sized companies become indebted due to the loss of sales, corporations stop innovations and new products, because in many cases the money flows into salaries and the social sector. However, this also creates equal opportunities, because whoever starts again best and quickly transforms and reorganizes the situation can gain market share. These are above all the online providers, digital business shops, virtual stores that will be among the new hidden champions and future winners. The overall market is shaken, restructured and partly re-divided in all sectors, and there are both weak and strong market shifts, e.g. on digital trade / e-commerce.
For employees and staff, it means that they have to adapt to many innovations and fear for their jobs because of the now faster-paced digitalization and increased use of artificial intelligence.

Because even if the second scenario of the SOCIAL GLOOM (10% probability) is delayed  between gloomy to twilight zone – this will be after the pandemics harder and more sustainable. Because on the one side, many private households have empty the store shelves and so quickly do not need anything anymore or have spent too much house money for security and have to save. The vacation fund is not filled up as quickly as it was partly emptied; you either cannot travel yet, are afraid of airline bankruptcies or a new pandemic on holidays, so that it would be difficult or impossible for you to return home. A lot has been read in the media about corporate bankruptcies in the Corona period, which is why investments in private and business are very reserved. This hits the industry hard as a boomerang.

This contrasts with the third scenario, which occurs in small, quiet steps but ultimately with a big leap forward. In GOLDEN ZOOM (30% probability), digitization is making further progress. It is transferred from school institutions and children day care centers to homework, teaching and creative, as well as online games. Citizens buy more and further on the Internet and have it sent to them, which supports this with falling shipping costs. And also the employees in their home offices learn to design their work virtually, to organize and to do everything together with their teams in video meetings as before in the office – this completely and holistically changes the working world towards a new work culture in the long term. Since 2010, digitization has not really made any headway in Europe, compared to USAmerica and Asia, and has barely got off the starting blocks if you look at Alibaba, Amazon, Google & co. opposite compared, who are each market leaders in global online trading. This crisis is digging deep into the world of work and society, but it also makes teleworking socially acceptable and even more natural in professional life. This positive effect is only ‘overshadowed’ by the fact that the development of artificial intelligence is accelerated in the course of the coming cost pressure on companies, so that it can increasingly replace employees and staff.

And last but not least, but not at the end, but just starting the fourth scenario with the new STARTUP BOOM (40% probability). The current as well as new founders are in the starting blocks, are flexible in small sharing offices or operate from home, and are therefore flexible, yet innovatively capable without large R&D centers as well as competently equipped. They are the new hidden champion superstars, either in partnership with larger companies at eye level or as the upcoming new Facebooks & Alibabas. This further flexibilizes and mobilizes our working world, captures and mitigates the job cuts and creates an even larger network of freelancers, who together create new and next-generation medium-sized companies (SME) in their added value.

The future or futures are a VUCA interplay – the future is and will be even more volatile (V), uncertain (U), complex (C) and ambiguous (A); it’s a mindset change mindset and stands for a new beginning of our thinking, away from previous simple patterns. Like a phoenix from the ashes, new ventures from the corona darkness and pandemic sinking will appear on the surface and usher in a new era as the CoronaPlus (C+) generation.

 STARTUP-BOOMing (40%) compensates or balances the ECO-DOOMing (20%) in the gross social balance sheet, while GOLDEN-ZOOMing (30%) bridges sustainable SOCIAL-GLOOMing (10%) in the long term.

 

Read in 4 new scenarios how we work after the corona pandemic, love and live: SOCIAL-DIY (40%), TRANS-POLICY (30%), HAMMER-DANCE (20%), SMART-DISTANCE (10%)

 

Post corona scenarios & futures . the drama (part 2)

If we look at the behavior and strategies in the business and private sectors, we see two dimensions, on the one hand an open field with cosmopolitanism, in it the reopening of the world (no closed borders, no travel stops, …) and the ongoing megatrend globalization. This contrasts with a closed system with border closings and isolation of individual countries to continents such as hard-pressed protection policies (sharp border controls, high tariffs on imports, trade war, sanctionism, fortress Europe …), which is hardly possible for a country to be self-sufficient, i.e. such restrictions and restrictions usually harm of their own economy most (see Iran, Iraq, Cuba, … as historical examples) as that they really protect against external dangers.
The second axis of good and evil runs between state full / partial control (big brother surveillance, …) or the call for the strong hand of the state (Russia, China, Turkey, …), the opposite side prefers a development in the direction direct (people’s) democracy to panocracy, in

If this SOCIAL-DIY (40% probability) functions as an open system between a globally open and self-made scenario, it requires the political responsibility of many citizens (example: Switzerland, …). In such a tendence trend and quiet revolution, many authorities are first decentralized, then dismantled, and ultimately a national / basic income is created, where nobody has to work for money anymore, but is provided with the basic necessities necessary for life. There would be a large number of mobile offices here, many becoming founders and creative people. I.e. we all work everywhere. This will be commonplace in the future with self-driving automobiles, when we no longer have to concentrate on driving, and move without a traffic jam and stops in autonomous vehicles in hypertunnels, drones or meglev / magnetic levitation trains to air shuttles. And this would also promote artificial intelligence, because if this replaces all workplaces, we will be able to do everything we want, virtually anywhere, but we won’t have to sit in an office or act in a production halls.

SMART-DISTANCE (10% probability) goes in a similar direction, but here you can observe a more private retreat on the one side (home office) and a more distant behavior towards your fellow human beings, the distance and privacy are reduced to 4 to 6 feet extended. The physical culture suffers especially children in the exchange of contacts when playing with others, no shaking hands, no kissing of friendship, no love kisses, hugging, and sex is limited and excluded – no permissions for prostitution or only practiced virtually (love dolls so-called sexy maids, petting software, online love toys & joy, long-distance apps, …). This may get used to indirectly and slowly over time with future(s) generations, but it takes some hyper generations. But there is a little more worry, fear and distrust in contact with other people in our everyday lives, and here and there protective masks like condoms become our everyday companions in pockets everywhere and at all times.

Since our penchant for freedom and self-determined democracy can no longer be reversed, the following two scenarios decrease over time, because we are determined by others.

The HAMMER-DANCE (20% probability) between moral ethics and law as a middle way between joy and burden are characterized by isolating boundaries (curfew, ban on meetings, avoidance of contact, …) and state intervention, quasi adaptively adapted to the respective situation and checked by experts. I.e. one loosens the restrictions in the event of a decline and barricades ‘immediately’ in the event of danger regardless of losses and high social collateral damage, closes and opens in alternation. Since this interferes deeply and widely with people’s privacy, it is a tolerated but not accepted nor acceptable, an unwillingly accepted and undesirable political instrument of resilience.

 

Rather, in the fourth and last scenario TRANS-POLICY (30% probability), foreign and domestic policy is carried out in a globally controlled manner and expanded to include health systems. In addition to border controls, there are health checks at airports and borders with a division into risky and safe countries, as is already the case according to the assessment of the political stability of a country, an A to AAAAA rating system for ‘health creditworthiness’. I.e. as with a filter system, all inflows and outflows of goods and people are not only checked occasionally, but continuously. This is a semi-open, semi-closed system – depending on the perspective. And this will surely act and divide more into zones (Europe), Asia, Northern / Southern Europe, Africa than before. The disadvantage, as with all previous controls, is the longer distances and longer waiting times. But this is already being reduced today by body scanners at airports, which are supplemented by health radar.
This scenario also helps that researchers and scientists worldwide, who can jointly research solutions and countermeasures, and that the solidarity-based help of the world community (UN, relief and emergency funds, etc.) is retained.

Our global community on a large scale, like our society on a small scale, is becoming more free, more democratic, more responsible, but at the price of more fear of the future and contact body anonymity, the resiliently beneficial SOCIAL DIY Doing-It-Yourself (40%) of the we-determine-everything- itself dominates and is supported by a more transparent-transformer-transitive TRANS-POLITIZATION (30%) until its withdrawal, the unpopular HAMMER-DANCE bidding laws (20%) are tolerated until then, which SMART-DISTANCing (10%) leaves behind multicultural scars and social traces, but does not dominate us. The respective pairs SOCIAL-DIY and TRANS-POLICY such as SMART-DISTANCE and HAMMER-DANCE are like the inseparable 2 sides of a coin, a double-edged sword of Damocles, a dodgy Janus face and at times a seemingly harmonious Yin & Yang.

 

Post corona scenarios & futures . the finale (part 3)

Prolog
According to the classic question of whether you can predict or anticipate the future, I usually say that you can foretell or forecast the futures (not the same like scenarios). It is not the psychology of fortune telling, but the preview research of futures sciences. And thanks to artificial intelligence and its simulations and prognosis, this has become faster, more effective, more evident, and more efficient. 

Every future has many scenarios, but not every scenario has (one) future. I know that I do not know has become we know everything is possible. Pandemics and epidemics are historically nothing new, but they also follow our megatrends, such as globalization, urbanization, mobility, … The “pandemization” is anthropologically a worldwide immunization process of the cosmis universe evolution, and a symbol of the age of the Anthropocene, the epoch of humans as an influencing factor of all earth planet development(s).

 

What comes after the pandemic – how should it go on?

First of all, there will be an ad-hoc return to everyday normality until the daily grind, as is so often the case after negative headlines. We are now, unfortunately, used to quickly forget or ignore panic news, be it food scandals (eggs, rotten meat, …) or storm victims. And we are only too happy to displace unpleasant things, such as cancer warnings on smoking boxes, and hide them according to the motto that happens to me-nothing. However, this is not a step backwards into forgetting self-denial, but is important for social and emotional stability. But little by little, from one generation to the next (X, Y, Z, Corona-Plus C +, …), a lot will change in a sustainable, long-term and permanent way, as global society is like a big ship that takes a long time to turn and change direction , but then continuously makes its way.

 

What is the outlook – Outlook – for 2020 to 2030?

In the scenarios TRANS-POLICY (30%) by the state and SOCIAL-DIY (40%) driven by the citizens, forward-looking futures can be seen for our world after Corona 19-20 and before Covid 21. The citizens take over the tasks of the state bit by bit self-organization and governments are increasingly being replaced by artificial intelligence and the technocrats are taking control of the central task. The more direct democracy regulates and enables everyone to participate in all community and overall social projects and decisions. Scenarios such as HAMMER-DANCE (20%) and SMART-DISTANCE (10%) are integrated into the coordination processes and advice systems and are therefore the result from the inside instead of from above.

 

As a result, the economy follows consumers and citizens. Artificial intelligence (AI) made unconditional basic income possible for everyone, and so a new wave of start-ups started. This STARTUP-BOOMing (40%) offset the gross social balance of the global economic crises 2020 and 2030, and so the economic crash, the ECO-DOOMing (20%), was softer than feared. After or with the digital age of GOLDEN ZOOMing (30%), the bio age epoch grew, and both promoted and expanded as a result. Through AI, the biological age was higher for most thanks to individual medicine, which our bodies use & fill with energy and vitamins, food, water and medicine provided as needed.
More and more could be 120 years and older, and mortality from common diseases (heart, cancer, …) decreased due to counter-medications such as preventive medicine. The AI ​​also made it possible to clone organs so that no one had to wait for them, nor was organ trading necessary. And through artificial reproduction like 3D printers, food could be produced at home and SOCIAL-GLOOMing (10%), i.e. make consumers’ moods and unhappyness disappear; because you no longer had to go to a supermarket or shop – they disappear by-time – everything was automatically ordered and delivered online. Anti-aging (geriatric age-appropriate medicine), organic organ engineering, designer babies, copy clones and more will be the revolutionary results of the bio-tech era.

Our earth life is not an earthquake and remains an experience, and knows more progress instead of way back, it is in the end a challenge that takes us to higher dimensions with space travel and colonization of other exo-planets (living worlds) and prepares us for them.

The “pandemization is another megatrend such as globalization, urbanization, mobility, human-artificial super-intelligences to digital virtualization of all areas of work and life.

Order here my book “Futures Pandemics”: go to the Shop

Author of the article as of the book: Roman Retzbach (R.Retzbach@Future-Institute.com; R.Retzbach@ZukunftsInstitut.com) is a futurist for over 30 years and speaker of the Future.Institute, a global network of futures organizations.

Keywords:
Hidden Champions, Globalization, Urbanization, Mobility, R/Evolution, Adaptation, Artificial Intelligence, Self-Driving Cars, Sharing Society, Individual Transport, Basic Income, Generation Corona +, Gender Gap, WoMen, Female Power, VUCA

ZukunftsPandemie(n) Post Corona Zukünfte 2020-2030: Was kommt nach dieser Pandemie, wie verändert sich unser Leben, die Wirtschaft, die Arbeit…? Hier sind meine 4 Szenarien als Zukunftsforscher:

Mein neues Buch “ZukunftsPandemien” bestellen:  hier geht es zum  Shop

Order my new book “Futures Pandemics”: go here to the Shop

Megatrend „Pandemisierung – Pandemisation“

Die „Pandemisierung ist ein weiterer Megatrend wie die Globalisierung, Urbanisierung, Mobilität, human-künstliche Super-Intelligenzen bis digitale Virtualisierung aller Arbeits- und L(i)ebensbereiche.

 Post Corona Szenarien & Zukünfte .  der Neuanfang (Teil 1)

Lesen Sie über die 4 neuen Szenarien nach der Pandemiekrise(n): STARTUP-BOOM (40%), GOLDEN-ZOOM (30%), ECO-DOOM (20%), SOCIAL-GLOOM (10%)

Was passiert nach der Corona Pandemie, wird es ein Covid-20, -21 geben? Wie geht es weiter mit unserer Wirtschaft, Gesellschaft und unserem Zusammenleben? Viele Fragen, die hier beantwortet werden sollen. Am 1.4.2020 habe ich mein neuestes Buch „ZukunftsPandemie(n)“ veröffentlicht, das mitten in der Krise Antworten gibt, wie man zukünftig mit, nach und ohne Virenseuchen überleben kann, sein Geschäft retten, den Job sichern und für Familie und Freunde Zeit hat. Wird es viele Firmencrashs, Masseninsolvenzen, hohe Selbstmordraten geben, und das unsere Kinder den Körperkontakt zu anderen verlieren, weil die Intimsphäre auf 1,50 bis 2m erweitert wurde? Und werden nun bargeldloses Zahlen, in der Öffentlichkeit Masken tragen wie schon seit Jahren in Asien – und virtueller statt realer körperlicher Sex auch für Deutsche zum Alltag werden? Ja und nein, denn wie ein großes Schiff dauert es 1-2 Generationen, bevor man sich an solche globale Epidemien und Pandemien ‚gewöhnt‘ und diese beherrscht – ohne sie wie so oft wieder zu vergessen; und ein neuer  kontaktfreierer Körperaustausch Alltag wird, z.B. über Anzüge, wie sie heute schon Astronauten und Vollberufsgamer nutzen. Solche Sensogummi- und Exoskelett Anzüge sind schon in Japan für  einsame Singles bis alten Menschen zur Erhaltung der körperlichen und seelischen Freiheit Alltag – doch damit wird es nicht für uns alle zur Killerapplikation des Fernkontakts, dazu sind einige von uns zu unterschiedlich aufgewachsen und denkend.

Und wie sieht die Zukunft der Pandemie(n) aus, werden wir sie wie die Pest ‚endgültig‘ oder nur zeitwiese besiegen, Gegenmittel haben oder am Ende ausgerottet werden? Da sich die Viren weiterentwickeln und radikaler werden ist zu befürchten ,dass die Zeit nach einer Pandemie lediglich die Wartezeit bis zur nächsten ist. Doch weil viele Länder immer besser präventiv agieren und sich vorbereiten, wird die Gefahrenzeit auf Tage herunterreduziert. Sicher ist, dass im Zuge des Wachstums unserer Weltbevölkerung und der weiteren Urbanisierung solche biologisch medizinische  Katastrophen wiederkommen. Der Verstädterung ist in Europa langsam und klein, doch in Asien, besonders China und Indien wie in Afrika entstehen immer mehr sogenannten Megastädte, also größer als 10 Mio., und Metacities mit 20 Millionen noch dichter und enger besiedelt, mit mehr Flächen- und Ressourcenverbrauch. Es gibt davon schon über 100 städtische Orte wie diese.

Und was machen diese Biowaffen der Mutter Natur alles mit uns Menschen in Zukunft? Zum einen immunisieren sie uns gemäß dem geheimen kosmischen Evolutionsplan, zum anderen warnen sie uns vor unserer Sterblichkeit und Zerbrechlichkeit. Da wir weiter so stark wachsen, werden wir bald in das Weltraumzeitalter übergehen und auf anderen Planten leben – dafür brauchen wir die Immunität. Sonst geht es uns wie in der Historie vieler Ureinwohner (Südamerika, …), die durch die ‚Entdecker‘ und deren Krankheiten überrascht wurden, und an ‚harmlosen‘ Infekten ungewohnt und unvorbereitet starben. Die Immunisierung der Erdbevölkerung ist ein kosmologischer Masterplan, nicht jedoch das Ausmaß und wie lange wir für die Heilung brauchen – das sind hausgemachte Probleme der Weltforschung.

Lassen Sie uns also aus der Zukunft, also Winter 2020, 2025 und 2030 zurück auf die Zeit heute schauen und ein Gesamtszenario aus 4 Bausteinen bzw. Einzelbildern entwerfen. Es gibt und gab schnelle Veränderungen und langsam-entschleunigte Transformationen., harte Eingriffe und ‚sanft‘ schleichende Neuerungen, also die einen direkt sofort und die anderen passiv kontinuierlich mit der Zeit, kurzum kurz-, mittel- und langfristig.

 

Das erste Szenario ist ein schnelles wie einschneidendes, und zwar der ECO-DOOM (20% Wahrscheinlichkeit), also Wirtschaftscrash, Systemdown, Konsumssperre, Kulturschock, verbunden mit Unternehmensinsolvenzen, Firmenverkäufen, Gewerbeauslösungen. Klein- und mittelständische Betriebe verschulden sich durch die Umsatzausfälle, Konzerne stoppen Innovationen und Neuprodukte, denn vielfach fließt das Geld in die Gehälter und den Sozialbereich. Dies schafft aber auch Chancengleichheit, denn wer am besten neustartet und sich schnell an die Situation transformiert und reorganisiert kann Marktanteile gewinnen. Dies sind vor allem die Online-Anbieter, digitale Business-Shops, virtuelle Geschäfte, die zu den neuen Hidden Champions und  Zukunftsgewinner gehören werden. Der Gesamtmarkt wird in allen Branchen durchgerüttelt , restrukturiert und teils neu aufgeteilt bzw. es gibt schwache wie starke Marktverschiebungen, z.B. zum digitalen Handel / E-Commerce.
Für Mitarbeiter und das Personal bedeutet es, dass sie sich auf viele Neuerungen einstellen  müssen und um ihren Job wegen der nun schneller voran getrieben Digitalisierung und verstärkter Einsatz Künstlicher Intelligenz fürchten müssen.

Denn auch wenn sich das zweite Szenario des SOCIAL GLOOM (10% Wahrscheinlichkeit) – zwischen Düsternis bis Twilight-Zone – erst verzögert einstellt, geschieht dies nach den Pandemien umso härter wie nachhaltiger. Denn zum einen haben viele Privathaushalte die Ladenregale leergehamstert und brauchen so schnell nichts mehr bzw. haben zu viel Hausgeld für die Sicherheit ausgegeben und müssen sparen. Auch wird die Urlaubskasse nicht so schnell mehr aufgefüllt wie ist teils geleert worden; man kann entweder noch nicht reisen, hat Angst vor Fluglinienpleiten oder einer neuen Pandemie im Urlaub, so dass man nicht oder schwer nach Hause zurückkommen würde. Man hat viel von Unternehmenspleiten in der Corona-Zeit in den Medien gelesen, weswegen sowohl im Privaten wie im Business sehr zurückhaltend investiert wird. Das trifft die Industrie erneut hart wie ein Boomerang.

Dem steht das dritte Szenario gegenüber, das in kleinen leisen Schritten aber am Ende mit großem Sprung nach vorne auftritt. Im GOLDEN ZOOM (30% Wahrscheinlichkeit) kommt die Digitalisierung weiter voran. Es wird von den Schulinstitutionen und den Kindergärten Hausaufgaben, Unterricht und Kreatives übertragen wie Spielemöglichkeiten online geliefert. Die Bürger kaufen immer mehr im Internet ein und lassen es sich schicken, die dadurch mit fallenden Versandkosten unterstützen dies. Und auch die Mitarbeiter in ihren Home-Offices lernen ihre Arbeit virtuell zu gestalten, zu organisieren und mit ihren Teams in Videomeetings alles gemeinsam wie davor im Büro zu erledigen –  dies verändert gänzlich wie ganzheitlich langfristig die Arbeitswelt hin zu einem New Work Culture. Die Digitalisierung kam seit 2010 besonders in Europa gegenüber Amerika und Asien nicht wirklich voran und gelangte nur wenig aus den Startlöchern, wenn man Alibaba, Amazon, Google & co. gegenüber im Vergleich betrachtet, die jeweils marktführend im globalen Onlinehandel sind. Diese Krise gräbt sich tief in die Arbeitswelt und die Gesellschaft ein, macht aber auch Teleworking salonfähig und mehr noch selbstverständlich im Berufsleben.  Dieser positive Effekt wird nur dadurch ‚überschattet‘, dass im Zuge des kommenden Kostendrucks auf die Unternehmen die Entwicklung der künstliche Intelligenz beschleunigt wird, so dass diese Mitarbeiter und Personal zunehmend ersetzen kann.

Und zu guter letzte, jedoch nicht am Ende, sondern gerade voll durchstartend das vierte Szenario mit dem neuen STARTUP BOOM (40% Wahrscheinlichkeit). Die jetzigen wie neuen Gründer*innen stehen in den Startlöchern, sind kostenflexibel in kleinen Sharing-Büros oder von Zuhause aus agierend, und damit flexibel, immer noch innovativ fähig ohne große F&E Zentren wie kompetent ausgestattet. Sie sind die neuen Hidden Champion Superstars, entweder in partnerschaftlicher Kooperation mit größeren Unternehmen auf Augenhöhe oder als die kommenden neuen Facebooks & Alibabas. Dies flexibilisiert und mobilisiert unsere Arbeitswelt weiter, fängt und mildert den Stellenabbau ab und schafft ein noch größeres Netzwerk von Freelancern, welche zusammen in ihrer Wertschöpfung den neuen wie nächsten  Mittelstand bilden.

Die Zukunft bzw. Zukünfte sind ein VUCA Wechselspiel – die Zukunft ist und wird noch mehr unbeständig (V), unsicher (U), komplex (C) und mehrdeutig (A); sie is ein Mindset Change und steht für einen Neuanfang unseres Denkens, weg von bisherigen simplen Mustern. Wie Phönix aus der Asche werden neue Unternehmungen aus der Corona Finsternis und Pandemie Versenkung an der Oberfläche erscheinen und als Generation Corona+ eine neue Zeit einleiten.

Der STARTUP-BOOMing (40%) gleicht bzw. balanciert in der Bruttosozialbilanz das ECO-DOOMing  (20%) aus, dass GOLDEN-ZOOMing (30%) überbrückt langfristig ein nachhaltiges SOCIAL-GLOOMing (10%).

 

Lesen Sie in 4 neuen Szenarien wie wir nach der Corona-Pandemie arbeiten, l(i)eben und wohnen: SOCIAL-DIY (40%), TRANS-POLICY (30%), HAMMER-DANCE (20%), SMART-DISTANCE (10%)

Post Corona Szenarien & Zukünfte .  das Drama (Teil 2)

Schauen wir auf das Verhalten und die Strategien im Business und Privatbereich, zeigen sich 2 Dimensionen, zum einen ein offenes Feld mit Weltoffenheit, darin die erneute Weltöffnung (keine verschlossenen Grenzen, keine Reisestopps, …) und das Fortlaufen des Megatrends Globalisierung. Dem steht konträr gegenüber ein abgeschlossenes System mit Grenzschließungen und Isolation einzelner Länder bis Kontinente wie hart betriebene Protektionspolitik (scharfe Grenzkontrollen, hohe Zölle auf Importe, Handelskrieg, Sanktionismus, Festung Europa …), was kaum einem Land als Selbstversorger möglich ist, d.h. derartige Restriktionen und Beschränkungen schaden i.d.R. der eigenen Wirtschaft am meisten (siehe Iran, Irak, Kuba, … als historische Beispiele) als das sie wirklich vor Gefahren von außen schützen.
Die zweite Achse des Guten und Bösen verläuft zwischen der staatlichen Voll-/Teilkontrolle (Big-Brother Überwachung, …) bzw. dem Ruf nach der starken Hand des Staates (Russland, China, Türkei, …), die Konträrseite bevorzugt eine  Entwicklung in Richtung direkter (Volks-)Demokratie bis Panokratie, in dem alle-über-alles gemeinsam bestimmen und eine Do-it-Yourself Gesellschaftsmentalität leben.

Wenn dieses SOCIAL-DIY (40% Wahrscheinlichkeit)  als ein offenes System zwischen global-offen und selbstgemachten Szenario funktioniert, bedarf es der politische Verantwortlichkeit von vielen Bürgern (Beispiel: Schweiz, …). In einer solchen Tendenz und stillen Revolution werden viele Behörden erst dezentralisiert, dann abgebaut, und es entsteht letztendlich ein Volks-/Grundeinkommen, wo niemand mehr für Geld arbeiten muss, sondern mit dem zum Leben notwendigsten basisversorgt ist. Mobile Offices wären hier in großer Masse vorhanden, viele werden Gründer und Kreative. D.h. wir alle arbeiten überall. Dies ist in den zukünftigen Zeiten mit selbstfahrenden Automobilen dann alltäglich, wenn wir uns auf kein Fahren mehr konzentrieren müssen, und ohne Stau und Stopps in autonomen Vehikeln in Hypertunnel, Dronen oder Meglev-/Magnet-Schwebebahn-Zügen bis Air-Shuttles bewegen. Und dies würde auch die künstliche Intelligenz fördern, denn wenn diese alle Arbeitsplätze ersetzt, werden wir uns mobil-virtuell überall frei beschäftigen, doch in keinem Büro sitzen oder in Produktionshallen malochen müssen.

Bei SMART-DISTANCE (10% Wahrscheinlichkeit) geht es in eine ähnliche Richtung, doch hier ist ein Rückzug mehr ins Private zum einen zu beobachten (Home-Office) wie ein mehr distanziertes Verhalten zu den Mitmenschen, der Abstand und die Intimsphäre wird auf 1,50 bis 2m erweitert. Die Körperkultur leidet hier besonders bei Kindern im Kontaktaustausch beim Spielen mit anderen, kein  Händeschütteln, kein Freundschaftsküsschen geben, keine Liebesküsse, Umarmen, und auch der Sex wird be- und ausgegrenzt – keiner Erlaubnis der  Prostitution oder nur noch virtuell gelebt (Liebespuppen sog. Love Dolls, Streichelsoftware, Online-Liebes-Toy&Joy, Fernbeziehungsapps, …). Dies mag sich indirekt und mit der Zeit bei zukünftigen Generationen langsam eingewöhnen, jedoch dauert dies Generationen. Doch es bleibt in unserem Alltag ein wenig mehr Sorge, Angst und Misstrauen im Kontakt mit anderen Menschen zurück, und hier und da werden Schutzmasken wie Kondome unsere Alltagsbegleiter in Taschen überall wie jederzeit.

Da sich unsere Hang nach Freiheit und selbstbestimmender Demokratie nicht mehr rückgängig machen lässt, sind die beiden folgenden Szenarien mit der Zeit abnehmend, denn wir werden hier fremdbestimmt.

Die HAMMER-DANCE (20% Wahrscheinlichkeit) zwischen Moral-Ethik-Gebot und Law-Gesetz als Mittelweg zwischen Freud und Last zeichnen sich durch isolierende Abgrenzung (Ausgangssperre, Versammlungsverbot, Kontaktvermeidung, …) und staatlichen Eingriff aus, quasi adaptiv angepasst an die jeweiligen Situation und durch Experten geprüft. D.h. man lockert die Einschränkungen bei Rückgang und barrikadiert ‚sofort‘ bei Gefahr ohne Rücksicht auf Verluste und bei hohem sozialen Kollateralschaden, schließt und öffnet im Wechseltakt. Da dies tief und weit in die Privatsphäre der Menschen eingreift, ist es ein toleriertes, aber nicht akzeptiertes noch akzeptables, ein widerwillig hingenommenes wie ungewünschtes politisches Machtinstrument der Resilienz.

Vielmehr wird im vierten und letzten Szenario TRANS-POLICY (30% Wahrscheinlichkeit) die Außen- und Innenpolitik global-kontrolliert vorgenommen und um Gesundheitssysteme erweitert. Neben den Grenzkontrollen gibt es Gesundheitscheckups an den Flughäfen und Grenzen mit Einteilung in Risiko- und sichere Ländern, wie es dies schon gemäß Bewertung der politischen Stabilität eines Landes gibt, quasi ein A bis AAAAA Ratingsystem für ‚gesundheitliche Bonität‘. D.h. wie bei einem Filtersystem werden alle Zu- und Abflüsse von Waren und Personen nicht nur punktuell, sondern stetig geprüft. Dies ist damit ein halb-offen halb-verschlossenes System – je nach Betrachtungsperspektive. Und dies wird sicherlich mehr in Zonen (Europa), Asien, Nord-/Südeuropa, Afrika agieren und einteilen als bisher schon. Der Nachteil ist wie bei allen bisherigen Kontrollen die  längeren Wegen und sich verlängernde Wartezeiten erst einmal. Doch dies wird heute schon durch Bodyscanner an Flughäfen wieder reduziert, die um Health-Radar ergänzt werden.
Dieses Szenario hilft auch, dass die Forscher und Wissenschaftler weltweit gemeinsam an Lösungen und Gegenmitteln forschen können, und dass auch die solidarische  Hilfe der Weltgemeinschaft (UN, Hilfs- bis Notfonds, …) erhalten bleibt.

Unsere Weltgemeinschaft im Großen wie unsere Gesellschaft im Kleinen wird freier, demokratischer, verantwortungsvoller, doch zum Preis von mehr Zukunftsängstlichkeit und Kontakt-Körper-Anonymität, das resilient-förderliche SOCIAL Doing-It-Yourself (40%) des wir-bestimmen-alles-selbst dominiert und wird durch eine mehr transparent-transformerisch-transitive TRANS-POLItisierung (30%) bis zur deren Rückzug unterstützt, die ungeliebten HAMMER-DANCE-Gebotsgesetze (20%) werden bis dahin toleriert, das SMART-DISTANCing (10%) hinterlässt multikulturelle Narben und soziale Spuren, doch beherrscht uns nicht. Die jeweiligen Paare SOCIAL-DIY und TRANS-POLICY wie SMART-DISTANCE und HAMMER-DANCE sind wie die untrennbaren 2 Seiten einer Münze, ein zweischneidiges Damoklesschwert, ein zwielichtiges Janusgesicht und zeitweise ein scheinbar harmonisches Yin & Yang.

 

 

Post Corona Szenarien & Zukünfte .  das Finale (Teil 3)

Prolog
Gemäß der klassischen Frage, ob man die Zukunft voraussehen oder vorhersehen kann, sage ich meist, dass man die Zukünfte (sind nicht das Gleiche wie Szenarien) vorhersagen wie voraussagen kann. Dahinter  steht nicht die Psychologie der Wahrsagerei, sondern die Forschung der Zukunftswissenschaften. Und diese ist dank Künstlicher Intelligenz und ihren Simulationen und Prognosen schneller wie effektiv-evident-effizienter geworden.

Jede Zukunft hat viele Szenarien, doch nicht jedes Szenario hat (eine) Zukunft. Ich weiß-dass-ich-nicht(s)-weiß ist zum wir-wissen-das-alles-möglich-ist geworden. Pandemien und Seuchen sind historisch nichts Neues, doch sie (ver)folgen auch unseren Megatrends, so der Globalisierung, Urbanisierung, Mobilität, … Die „Pandemisierung“ ist anthropologisch ein  weltweiter  Immunisierungsprozess der Evolution, und ein Wahrzeichen des Zeitalters des Anthropozän, die die Epoche des Menschen als Einflussfaktor aller Erdplanet-Entwicklung(en) ist.

 

Was kommt nach der Pandemie – wie soll es weitergehen?

Es wird erst einmal eine Ad-hoc Rückkehr zur alltäglichen Normalität bis Alltagstrott geben, wie so oft nach negativen Schlagzeilen. Wir sind ‚leider‘ Paniknachrichten inzwischen gewohnt schnell wieder zu ‚vergessen‘ oder zu ignorieren, sei es Lebensmittelskandale (Eier, Gammelfleisch, …) oder Sturmopfer. Und wir verdrängen nur allzu gerne Unangenehmes, wie z.B. Krebswarnungen auf Raucherschachteln, und blenden sie aus gemäß dem Motto, das mir-schon-nichts-passiert. Doch ist dies kein Rückschritt in eine vergessende Selbstverleugnung,  sondern für die gesellschaftliche seelische Stabilität wichtig. Doch nach für nach von einer zur nächsten  Generation (X,Y, Z, Corona-Plus C+, …) wird sich vieles nachhaltig, langfristig und dauerhaft verändert, da die Weltgesellschaft wie ein große Schiff ist, das lange für einen Kehrwende und Richtungswechsel braucht, doch dann kontinuierlich sich ihren Weg bahnt.

 

Was ist der Ausblick – Outlook – für 2020 bis 2030?

In den Szenarien TRANS-POLICY (30%) seitens des Staates und SOCIAL-DIY (40%) vorangetrieben von den Bürgern zeigen sich zukunftsweisende Zukünfte auf für unsere Welt nach Corona 19-20 und vor Covid 21. Die Bürger übernehmen Stück für Stück Aufgaben des Staates durch Selbstorganisation und die Regierungen werden durch Künstliche Intelligenz zunehmend ersetzt und übernehmen die Technokraten Kontrolle der zentralen Aufgabe. Die direktere Demokratie regelt und ermöglich die Mitbestimmung aller an allen gemeinschaftlichen wie gesamtgesellschaftlichen Projekten und Entscheidungen. Szenarien wie HAMMER-DANCE (20%) und SMART-DISTANCE (10%) werden in die Abstimmungsprozesse und Ratssysteme integriert und sind damit Ergebnis von innen statt von oben.

Die Wirtschaft folgt den Konsumenten folglich den Bürgern. Die Künstliche Intelligenz (KI)  ermöglichte das bedingungslose Grundeinkommen für alle, und so startete eine neue Gründungswelle. Dieses  STARTUP-BOOMing (40%) gleichte das Bruttosozialbilanz der Weltwirtschaftskrisen 2020 und 2030 aus, und so fiel der Wirtschaftscrash, das ECO-DOOMing  (20%) milder als befürchtet aus. Nach bzw. mit dem digitalen Zeitalter des GOLDEN-ZOOMing (30%) erwuchs die Bio Age Epoche, und beide förderten sich und expandierten dadurch. Durch KI wurde das biologische Alter höher für die meisten dank individuell- Medizin, die unsere Körper genauso so mit Energie, Vitaminen, Nahrung, Wasser und Arznei versorgte, wie gebraucht wurde.
Immer mehr konnten 120 Jahre und älter werden, zudem sank die Sterblichkeit an Volkskrankheiten (Herz, Krebs, …) durch Gegenmedikamente wie präventive Medizin. Die KI ermöglichte auch das Klonen von Organen, so dass niemand mehr darauf warten musste noch Organhandel notwendig war. Und durch künstliche Reproduktion wie 3D Druckern konnten Lebensmittel zuhause erzeugt werden und das SOCIAL-GLOOMing (10%), d.h. die Un-/Lust und Laune der Konsumenten verschwinden lassen; denn man musste nicht mehr zu einem Supermarkt zum Einkaufen – die Shoper verschwanden alle mit der Zeit – alles wurde online automatisch bestellt wie geliefert. Anti-Aging (geriatrische altersgerechte Medizin), Bio-Organ-Engineering, Designer-Babys, Kopie-Klone und mehr werden die revolutionären Resultate der Bio-Tech Zeitalters einmal sein.

Unser Erdleben ist kein Erdbeben und bleibt ein Erleben, und kennt mehr Fortschritte statt Rückwege, es ist am Ende eine Herausforderung, welche uns in höhere Dimensionen mit der Weltraumfahrt und Kolonisierung anderen Exo-Planeten (Lebenswelten) führt und darauf vorbereitet.

Die „Pandemisierung ist ein weiterer Megatrend wie die Globalisierung, Urbanisierung, Mobilität, human-künstliche Super-Intelligenzen bis digitale Virtualisierung aller Arbeits- und L(i)ebensbereiche.

Order here my book “Futures Pandemics”: go to the Shop

Hier mein Buch “ZukunftsPandemien” bestellen: zum Shop

Autor des Artikels und des Buch: Roman Retzbach (R.Retzbach@Future-Institute.com; R.Retzbach@ZukunftsInstitut.com) ist seit über 30 Jahren Zukunftsforscher und Sprecher des Future.Institute, eines globalen Netzwerks von Zukunftsorganisationen.

Stichworte:
Hidden Champions, Globalisierung, Urbanisierung, Mobilität, R/Evolution, Adaption, Künstliche Intelligenz, Selbstfahrende Autos, Sharing Society, Individualverkehr, Grundeinkommen, Generation Corona+, Gender Gap, WoMen, Female Power, VUCA